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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.87 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP