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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 46

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 25-M.Gordon right end to LV 36 for 10 yards (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.98 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model