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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to LV 21, Center-45-C.Mazza. 30-J.Richard to LV 29 for 8 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model