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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 30-J.Richard ran ob at LAC 32 for 10 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.95 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model