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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 31 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right to 34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model