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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 21 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(12:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to NO 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP