Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

(2:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to NO 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.80 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model