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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:39) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to TEN 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on NO, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 7.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model