Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 93

Tennessee Titans 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to 50, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, touched at 50, and recovers at TEN 48. 11-D.Harris to TEN 48 for no gain (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.60 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 93, worth -5.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model