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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 36

Chicago Bears 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson [30-A.Brown].

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EP