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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(1:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model