Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 82

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Chicago Bears 0

(3:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CHI 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 49 for 10 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.87 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model