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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 12-A.Robinson (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model