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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CHI 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 13 for 8 yards (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP