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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model