Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

(:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-M.Orzech. 38-K.Barner pushed ob at ATL 20 for 12 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model