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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 7-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model