4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to ATL 9, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-13-M.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model