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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Chark Jr. (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP