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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 9-R.Allen punts 47 yards to JAX 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 33 for 7 yards (87-J.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model