Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(11:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.86 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model