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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 5

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 7-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.40 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model