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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 9-R.Allen punts 39 yards to JAX 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-23-B.Hill.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP