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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model