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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short right to 22-Co.Davis to JAX 45 for 7 yards (35-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.00 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model