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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 49

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 6-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to DET 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP