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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 73

Denver Broncos 27 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to DET 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew to DET 26 for 3 yards (43-J.Jones). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.06 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP