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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 7

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP