Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 76

Detroit Lions 17 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to DEN 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 20. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 28 for 8 yards (49-C.Moore; 35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DEN-59-M.Reed, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.63 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model