Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 61

Detroit Lions 17 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 24 for 14 yards (30-D.Virgin). PENALTY on DET-54-S.Longa, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model