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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 8

Denver Broncos 10 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model