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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 16

Denver Broncos 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model