Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 85

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(11:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to DET 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model