4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to PHI 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-G.Ward to PHI 29 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP