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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup (22-S.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.96 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP