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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP