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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model