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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to PHI 34, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model