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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to PHI 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model