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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Perkins.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.91 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model