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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (Shotgun) 3-W.Grier sacked at IND 14 for -9 yards (99-J.Houston).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model