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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.35 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.88 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model