Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 6 – Indianapolis Colts 24

(7:34) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to IND 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.77 EP
64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model