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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 6 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 3-W.Grier left guard to IND 12 for no gain (99-J.Houston, 50-A.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.03 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model