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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 6 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy pass short right to 18-D.White to IND 34 for 12 yards (30-G.Odum). Indianapolis challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP