4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 7

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model