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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 35

Washington Commanders 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.47 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model