Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 84

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(12:03) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.96 EP
55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model