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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to WAS 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-S.Sims to WAS 11 for -3 yards (57-T.Edwards; 49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP