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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model